Mike Lowell: To Sign or not to Sign?

[In honor of the Red Sox winning the World Series, my next few posts will be related to baseball’s latest World Champions]

Amid the champagne showers and the celebrations and the accolades for his clutch performance during the regular season and the post season, Mike Lowell must be feeling a twinge of anxiety. His contract ends this season, and his future with the Boston Red Sox is at this point unknown.

In the euphoria of victory, many fans have loudly expressed their desire to see Mike Lowell re-signed. Their argument is persuasive; Mike Lowell had a career year in 2007. He was the 2007 World Series MVP, and he led the Red Sox in RBI. He also batted .324. Clearly, he is a good ballplayer. He is also a good defensive third basemen, and an invaluable clubhouse presence; a composed veteran fluent in both English and Spanish.

Mike Lowell is also 34, and it will probably take at least a 4 year deal to sign him. Will Boston really want Mike Lowell manning third when he’s 38? 39? 2007 was something of a career year for Mike Lowell, so his stat line for 2008 will probably reflect his career averages; envision a .280 batting average, with 20 home runs, and 80 RBI. Further, expect not only his offensive production, but his defense, to decline in subsequent years. Despite this, I still say sign him.

Here is the most compelling reason for Boston to sign Mike Lowell: if they don’t, the Yankees will. Brian Cashman threatened that he would not try to resign Alex Rodriguez if he opted out of his contract, which, to the delight of Yankees-haters everywhere, he did. Assuming the Yankees hold true to their word, they will have a gaping hole at third base. If Mike Lowell, the only other attractive option at third base, is available, they will quickly snatch him up.

Boston has a unique opportunity to severely handicap the Yankees for 2008. If Boston resigns Lowell, the Yankees will have few remaining options. After Lowell and Rodriguez, the best free agent third baseman is Mike Lamb, a 33 year old who in 2004 hit a career high 58 RBI. New York would have difficulty finding a solid third baseman through a trade, and to do so, they would probably have to give up at least one of their prized prospects. Finally, the Yankees have no notable prospects waiting in wing to take over third base. In short, they will be in a no-win situation.

Losing Alex Rodriguez was a huge blow to the Yankees. His WARP-1, a sabermetric statistic describing the number of wins a certain player is worth over a replacement player, was 11.1. Mike Lamb, as a point of comparison, had a WARP-1 last season of 2.5. If the 2007 Yankees had started Mike Lamb at third instead of Alex Rodriguez, they would have won between 85 and 86 games; not 94. That’s how bad they look to be if they lose A-Rod. Mike Lowell last season had a WARP-1 of 7.0. If the 2007 Yankees had started Lowell at third instead of Rodriguez, they would have won 90 games; just enough to snag the Wild Card. Do us a favor, Theo Epstein, and keep the Yankees out of the playoffs; re-sign Mike Lowell.