The downfall of mankind will not arise from the destructive clashes between ultra-nationalistic superpowers, but rather, the clash between two new breeds of mankind, the Neo-Nerds and the Neo-Jocks. Contrary to the old stereotypes, Neo-Nerds are characterized solely by their addiction to online computer games, rather than dweebish appearance. On the other hand, the Neo-Jocks are united by their refusal to live in a self-imposed matrix rather than a love for booze, football, and weight-lifting. As history has shown, the only result of such polarization is civil war; i.e. the apocalypse.
Witness the catastrophic rise of the recent and very popular MMOGs, massively multi-player online games, which not only provide the Neo-Nerds with vivid new worlds, but new social hubs, and ultimately an alternative life to the "dull" reality outside of the computer.
Signs that MMOGs are spawning Neo-Nerds:
1) The blurring of the distinction between virtual money and real money.
2) Online behavior that mirrors real life behavior - epidemiologists and other social scientists even exploit this characteristic of the virtual world in researching the real world (see this article in The Economist).
3) The fast growing popularity of MMOGs (see graphs here and more info here). If all the active-playing Neo-Nerds (13 million) currently had their own country, they would be roughly the 70th largest country in the world from a population standpoint and last year the growth rate in number of active MMOG gamers has been just over 20 percent; the average for the world is 1.2%. Combine these two facts and the Neo-Nerd population will double every three and a half years, jumping up the rankings to about 25th largest in 7 years.
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Playing along with your generalization of humans as being separable into one of two classifications, let's question your proposed result: "As history has shown, the only result of such polarization is civil war; i.e. the apocalypse."
Conflicts arise when two or more groups desire the same thing, whether it be money or cookies or power. Race riots don't emerge until different races come in contact. As the tendency of Neo-Nerds is to withdraw from physical society and immerse themselves in cyberspace, what possible conflict could there be? It's like the persecuted fleeing Europe for the New World, only this New World is the virtual one. Conflict will only occur if the Old World chases after the New World (which, given your definition as "united by their refusal to live in a self-imposed matrix", will never happen), and does not imply annihilation as a result.
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